Overrated and Underrated Players

 Each draft pick is about comparing players to each other and knowing who is overrated and underrated. In this post I will talk about a player who is overrated and underrated in each offensive position. It is important to know who has more value at each position. I will not bother talking about things like,who is more valuable Aaron Rodgers or Kevin Kolb. I want to get into players who are not stand-out, elite players but players who are very important to an owners success and might not exactly pop off a roster.

Quarter Back

OVERRATED: Andrew Luck
 The Hype around Andrew Luck last year was well deserved. He was the 8th best quarterback in terms of fantasy scoring. He averaged 22.9 points a game in PPR formatted leagues. He had 28 overall touchdowns and showed impressive pocket passing skills as well as surprising running abilities. However, a coaching change from the pass happy Bruce Arians made Luck have more passing attempts, he totaled 627 last year. The Colts coach Chuck Pagano, who was out most of last year due to illness, is known for a more conservative style of play. With additions to the Colts defense, Luck will not have to pass as much because they will not always be trying to overcome a deficit. Pagano will choose to run the ball more especially with a bolstered offensive line and with the addition of Ahmad Bradshaw, the Colts will run the ball more. Luck is a great talent in the NFL, but in terms of his fantasy value, 2013 will be a down year. 

UNDERRATED: Matthew Stafford
There has been a lot of criticism of Stafford because of his low production last year. Stafford finished the year 10th in scoring and had 17 interceptions with just 20 touchdown passes. While those numbers are disappointing especially after his huge year in 2011, Stafford led the league in passing attempts in the past two seasons. The problem the Lions had last year was their passing game was the only threat to opposing defenses. Especially, since their defense was giving the other team huge leads. With the addition of Reggie Bush and a healthier offensive line, some of the pressure will be taken off Stafford. I think this will give him a better opportunity to score. 

Running Back

OVERRATED:
Arian Foster is one of the best backs in the league. He scores at will when on the goal line and is for sure a top 5 fantasy running back. Most pre-rankings for fantasy football have Foster as the second running back to be chosen. I think that this is too high for Foster and that he could see a down year. Running backs have a short time frame in their careers where they are in their prime. Foster has led the league in carries the past two seasons. Last year he led the league with 351 rushing attempts. Despite that he was the third best running back in terms of overall fantasy points in PPR leagues. He rushed for the 6th most yards and was in the top 15 in receptions. Health is a major concern for Foster going into this season, he is reported to have calf problems already. Another question mark for Foster is whether or not he will have all the goal line opportunities that he has had in past seasons. 

 UNDERRATED:
Trent Richardson will have a great year this year if he can stay healthy. With injuries and a shaky offense last year Trent still managed to get within the top ten in scoring. He averaged 17 points per game and had a suprising 51 catches. The offensive line is the same as last year which is good news because they are young and athletic linesman, especially their left tackle Joe Thomas. Look for Trent to repeat his scoring numbers but improve his rushing yards dramatically. 

Wide Receiver

OVERRATED:
Stevie Johnson is the go too receiver for the Buffalo Bills but will not be of great value to fantasy owners this year. With one of the worst Quarterback situations in the league, the Bills passing game will suffer. Unless EJ Manuel will surprise everyone in the NFL with a great season, Stevie's numbers will decline from his 6 touchdown and 1,000 yards plus last year. Another factor riding against Stevie is the new coach in town that is known for his heavy rushing approach to the game. 

 UNDERRATED:
Reggie Wayne has been an exciting player to watch the past few seasons. After Peyton Manning left the Colts, it was thought that Reggie's fantasy production would go down dramatically. Last year, however, Wayne was targeted 195 times. That was second in the league and was far more than anyone had predicted. He finished with over 1,300 yards receiving and 100 catches. Especially in PPR leagues, Reggie is a steal with the depth of receivers in the league. 

Tight End

OVERRATED:
I can't blog enough about how much I do not like Vernon Davis as a fantasy owner. I have nothing against the guy, I think he is talented and athletic but as a fantasy tight end, he is past his prime. Last year he had multiple games with zero points. Just because he has had hope surround his name this off-season because of injuries, does not have me thinking differently about Vernon. DO NOT DRAFT HIM. 

 UNDERRATED:
Martellus Bennet is a gifted receiver who has shown flashes of being a solid fantasy producer. Although he had only 600 yards receiving and 5 touchdowns, Bennett is a great athletic force in the passing game. The Bears had only one true threat in the passing game and that was Brandon Marshall. With defenses putting more focus on Brandon, I expect Bennett to have more than the 90 targets Eli Manning threw to him last year.

Focus on getting the elite players in the first few rounds. Expect these players with the exception of the running backs to be in the later rounds. It's important to differentiate values between players in fantasy, especially with the clock ticking and it is your turn to pick.

The Importance of Mock Drafts

Mock drafts are a great way to contain your excitement for the real deal drafts coming up. I have a day, hour and minute countdown for both of my drafts this year. Mock drafts also prepare owners more than any other type of research. An owner can have notes and flashcards about players but it doesn't translate to have the sense of mind to pick under distress.

There is a time limit for each draft pick so it is important, for example, in the 3rd round to have an idea of what you need and if one position is more important than another. For example, I had two running backs in Adrian Peterson and Maurice Jones Drew. I could have picked Peyton Manning or Tom Brady in the third round. There was also Julio Jones and Brandon Marshall available.

Since it was a PPR league and receivers are given a huge advantage, I picked Brandon Marshall. Marshall is incredibly gifted and is by far the number one target for Jay Cutler. Julio Jones is one of three very popular targets for the Falcons, so Brandon has a fantasy advantage.

The reason I waited on quarterbacks is because there are many tiers in terms of fantasy production. There is Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees at the top, with at least three other tiers. If you have solid receivers and running backs you do not need a Brees or Rodgers, you can go for a mid-level guy who can give you 17 to 20 points a week.

Its important to mock draft to your league settings. In one league I am in there are two running back slots, two receiver slots, and two flex slots. I have to draft running backs with high value than any other position. Since the leagues, are PPR I can have more faith in receivers. However, running backs remain the most valuable when it comes to fantasy.

Where Are You Drafting?

There are different ways to draft your team. I have done live drafts where everyone is in a room and write their picks on a board. I have done online drafts as well. These are the two most common ways to draft.

Live drafts are cool and give an authentic feeling to the draft for owners in the league. It can be fun and entertaining because everyone is in the same room. It can be difficult for owners to focus and take account for what positions they already have and who they need. It can also be difficult to know what players are still available to draft. Live drafts can also take a long time because it may be hard to give a time limit for owners to make a pick.

Online drafts can be useful because the website solves the problems you can have with a live draft. Online drafts are user friendly because they have the players ranked and can organize everything, making it easier for owners. Online drafts are also more time efficient because of the timer. One big problem with online drafts is people can have trouble connecting with the internet. I have had this problem in the past and my team was autodrafted the first few rounds. It is a horrible feeling to have your first few picks auto drafted.

My friend suggested we draft at a Buffalo Wild Wings. This is a bad idea. I can't trust the internet connection plus I do not want to be distracted by the ten thousand televisions and people rooting for their teams. I prefer to keep it indoors, alone, and in the dark.

A Trade That Paid Off

It was the end of the second week of the regular season in the NFL, RGIII had just gone off against the Saints. He was looking like the stud of the fantasy season. My friend who will go by the name of Gill, had RGIII sitting on the bench because he had Cam Newton starting. I had Big Ben from Pittsburgh at quarterback so I was looking for an upgrade. My other friend who will go by the name of Josh, needed a running back. Gill needed a wide receiver, which I had plenty of.

This was the making of my first and only three way trade. At the time I realized of the potential three way trade it was already midnight. I could not see myself falling asleep with a trade as big as this one hanging in the air. The wide receivers I had last year were stupidly good, I wasn't willing to give any of them up. I had Brandon Marshall, Calvin Johnson and Julio Jones. That meant I had to give up a running back. I had CJ Spiller, Alfred Morris and Frank Gore. I was most willing to trade Gore for RGIII.

Gill was not going for that trade because he was in serious need for a wide receiver. I was not giving Gill any of my receivers so I had to get one of Josh's receivers for a running back. Gill wanted Dez Bryant from Josh and Josh wanted Gore from me.

By two o'clock in the morning all three of us decided to trade Gore, RGIII and Dez Bryant. This is how it went down:
Josh traded me Dez Bryant
I Traded Josh Frank Gore
I flipped Dez Bryant for RGIII.

The offers that were made until all three parties could agree on something were endless. Finding a medium that fit everyone's needs is the trickiest part. After a few weeks of RGIII carrying my team and dominating while Cam Newton carried out a disappointing year, Gill regretted making that trade. Overall, I think I came out on top of that trade even though running back served to be a minor bump in the road for me. 

Vernon Davis Ready To Step Up?

Michael Crabtree is injured this off season and will be placed on the PUP list. Targets will be increasing for Anquan Boldin and Vernon Davis. Vernon Davis has the athleticism and talent to be a top tier tight end but has disappointed fantasy owners recently. Last year Davis struggled greatly with less and less targets and getting zero fantasy points on several occasions. When Colin Kaepernick got the starting job last year, Davis had fantasy performances of 14, 0, 1, 0, 1, 2, 0.

Those numbers are just awful and for a player as talented as Davis, it is hard to tell whether or not he will put up big numbers like he has in the past. In 2010 and 2011 Davis had over 90 targets each year. Last season he had 61 and significantly less receptions with only 40 for the 2012 season. His touchdowns have declined from his 2009 breakout season when he had 13 touchdowns. Last year he had only 5 touchdowns in 16 games played.

With the recent injuries to San Francisco's receiving core, Davis may see more targets. ESPN reports that Davis has recently taken snaps at wide receiver. This would mean Davis could possibly see more production from a fantasy standpoint. I would think Davis        will be available late in upcoming drafts and has the opportunity to show that he still can produce at a high level.



                                                                          

Newest Injury Updates

Injuries are just about the biggest news updates that come from training camps. There have been three significant injuries that will affect your upcoming draft. Wide receivers can be vulnerable to injuries during the season but during training camp injuries are usually serious. Training camp injuries usually deal with torn tendons, broken limbs and other serious injuries dealing with the legs or anything below the hips. With these injuries new opportunities rise

The first of three players I will be talking about is Jeremy Maclin. Maclin tore his ACL recently at training camp and will miss the entire 2013 season. He had the same injury to the same knee seven years ago. Maclin is a very talented receiver who was targeted the most of any Eagle receivers. The receiver to likely absorb Maclin's targets is Riley Cooper. Cooper is not as athletic as Maclin but will fit well into Chip Kelly's new system because of his size.

The second player that will be discussed is Dennis Pitta. Pitta recently fractured his hip and had surgery that will put him out for the remainder of the season. This injury was devastating for the Ravens because stud receiver Anquan Boldin left the team for San Fransisco this season. These two players were Joe Flacco's favorite targets last year. The question now is who will step up in Pitta's absence? The Ravens recently signed free agent Vincent Shancoe and have reported Ed Dickson will have to step up his receiving duties this season.




Last but not least, Percy Harvin has been reportedly diagnosed with a slight tear in his hip and may start the season on the Physically Unable to Perform list, otherwise known as the PUP list. If a player is put on the PUP list they are unable to play for the first six weeks of the season. Harvin was just recently traded to the Seattle Seahawks and is an incredibly talented receiver. If he does play in the beginning of the season, he will be a dangerous receiver. Sydney Rice and Golden Tate will see more targets if Harvin is unable to be healthy enough for the start of the season.

Interviewing Super Bowl Host Committee Employee

If you haven't heard the Super Bowl will be hosted in New Jersey this year. The championship game will be played at the Meadowlands where the Jets and the Giants play their home games. I recently interviewed an employee of the Super Bowl Host Committee who would like to remain anonymous about fantasy football:

ME: Do you have a fantasy football team?
Super Bowl Host Employee: Yes, I love fantasy football. I have no team I really follow or root for, so I root for individual players

Me: How do you think fantasy football changes the way fans watch the NFL?
SBHE: I think fans have a deeper viewing experience when they have fantasy teams. Whether the fans are talking about the games or researching players, there is a deeper connection between the NFL and the fans.  The way fans watch the game is certainly evolving from the traditional way fans used to watch football. There are different ways to see what is happening around the league every Sunday instead of just watching the one on CBS or FOX.

 ME: What do you think about Redzone? Its a program that shows every scoring play from every game.
SBHE: I think Redzone is great. I know what it is, my friend had it last year so I went over to his house too watch. I think it is the ultimate viewing experience for fans. I think it might affect the ratings for the games on CBS or FOX but with Redzone you don't have to flip back and forth from channel to channel because there are no commercials.

ME: Who is a player or players that you would like to draft this upcoming season?
SBHE: I think Matt Ryan (pictured to the right) is going to have a huge year. I like his wide outs Roddy White and especially Julio Jones, watching him play is exciting. I think Stephen Jackson will have a great year if he stays healthy.                                
                                       
There you have it, yet another person who thinks fantasy football is a great way to get involved in the NFL. The person I interviewed was an avid fantasy football owner who was excited to get back into another great season in the NFL.

Promising Running Back Oppurtunities

In the NFL, teams without a solid running back will try to find a new fit at the start of every season. Sometimes through free agency teams find some but most of the time teams look within their organization. Two players that are not rookies who have an opportunity to start for their teams are Daryl Richardson/ Isiah Pead and Lamar Miller.

This is Lamar Miller of the Miami Dolphins. With the departure of Reggie Bush, Lamar can start for the Dolphins. There is no guarantee Lamar can produce at a high fantasy level every week, but it is important for fantasy owners to look for sleepers. Realistically, Lamar is going to be a solid flex starter who can be picked in later rounds.

                                      VS









                                                                                             
Daryl Richardson                                                                                                         Isiah Pead


Daryl is listed as the protected starter going into training camp this summer.  St. Louis has said that it will be a battle for the starting role between Daryl and Isiah. Isiah is the return man and has explosive speed, while Daryl is more of a between the tackles runner with power and speed. It is too early to tell who will get the starting job. In most drafts, Daryl is lasting until the seventh round and Pead is staying until the ninth round. I would pick either of these two as safety picks but I am hesitant to pick these guys before the eighth round.
    

How-To Post: Efficient Way To Collect Money For the League

It is in my experience, that collecting money from everyone in the league can be a challenge. Some owners will procrastinate, some will try to avoid paying, it is important for the commissioner to collect. For college kids especially these things are expected to happen. In the leagues I am in, the owners live all over the country, so online collecting is the best way to handle any problems the owners might give a commissioner. The best website I have seen for this exact purpose is leaguesafe.com. Here is a step by step process for setting up a leaguesafe account:

1) Go to leaguesafe.com.
2) Click on "Get Started" and create an account, its safe and easy.
3) Create the league name and for what sport the fantasy league is in.
4) Set the league payments to credit and debit cards because that is what most people pay with.
5) Set whatever entry fee was decided upon.
6) To ensure people will pay on time, preferably before the draft set up a late fee. This works as extra incentive for owners to pay on time.
7) Collect every email and invite each owner, this is tedious and can be annoying but it is a direct line for people to pay so they do not have to find the website. Trust that people will find excuses not to pay.
8) Set the "Auto-Nag" setting on payment settings, the website will email every owner that has not paid.
9) Set collection to " Commissioner has total control". Personally, I like this the best it takes away all confusion and can dealt with at a later time.

Leaguesafe is a trusted website and is incredibly cheap to use. I think it costs 75 cents to pay and the winner has a check sent to them or direct deposit in a PayPal account. Even then the website only takes no more than $1.25 from an owners winnings.

A Genius Talking About His Guys

Matthew Berry is a very well known fantasy writer. He has a book coming out and is my favorite fantasy sports writer. Berry recently wrote about a mock draft he participated in and discussed what his approach into each round was and the reasons for his pick that round. The format for the league the mock draft was a 12 team league with a points per reception (PPR) format. Here is Berry's blog post.

This blog post was great for a pre draft approach that every owner should have. Anything can happen while drafting so practice is a great help to be prepared for the unexpected. Having an idea of what position to draft first and what to look for in the later rounds is crucial. Certain players have value in a PPR format while others lose value. Running backs who catch the ball as well as run the ball have increased value. Reggie Bush and Derron Sproles are very good PPR running backs.

One thing that you cannot be totally prepared for is what pick you will have in the first round. Another thing is if the guy you were hoping to pick has already been picked. In this situation, it is very important to have ranks for each position. Remember, expect the unexpected. Get your guys. Do not pick any Jets and all will be alright.

A Blast From The Past

Looking back on a past post of mine I talked about how watching football can be dramatically altered when an owner has a player in the game they are watching. In the blog post I showed how I added a paragraph where I discussed how owners root for certain situations to happen while watching a football game so one of their players can score points for their team. My paragraph is still on the Fantasy Football (American rules) page, but there are two additional paragraphs that have been added to the section where my paragraph is. The first paragraph talks about the increased ratings and viewership of football because of football:

The explosive popularity of fantasy sports, coupled with the availability of venues showcasing numerous live football games via satellite, has had significant effects on football viewing and rooting habits among participants. Fantasy sports players watch more game telecasts, buy more tickets and spend money at stadiums at a much higher rate than general sports fans. For example, 55 percent of fantasy sports players report watching more sports on television since they started playing fantasy sports. ^[15] Fantasy participants also are reported to attend 0.22 to 0.57 more NFL games in person per season.^[16] The NFL entered into a reported five-year, $600 million deal in 2006 with Sprint that was driven at least in part because of fantasy sports, allowing subscribers to draft and monitor their teams with their cellphones. ^[17] Many sports and football-related sports news shows discuss fantasy-related topics. Besides the fictional The League, multiple TV programs that focus on fantasy football news exist; examples include ESPN's Fantasy Football Now and CBS's Fantasy Football Today.

The numbers the editor writes are interesting. I know in my personal case that I watched 10 times more football my first fantasy season. I have purchased NFL Redzone, which showcases every scoring play on Sundays. I have been interested in going to games and watching EVERY game that is on television. This paragraph contradicts the other paragraph that was added:

Critics charge that because of the varying interests, some fantasy owners may instead support the players on their fantasy rosters in any one game rather than supporting a favorite team. Players are mixed on the impact of the effects of fantasy football on fans' habits and preferences. Retired NFL QB Jake Plummer told ESPN "I think it's ruined the game", and retired New York Giants RB Tiki Barber said about fantasy fans, "there's an incongruity in the wants."^[18] However, former Washington Redskins tight end Chris Cooley plays in four fantasy football leagues himself, ^[17] and former Indianapolis Colts linebacker Cato June benched New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady from his fantasy team to avoid a conflict of interest when the two teams played in November 2006. Fans frequently ask players on their fantasy rosters to score more often; Peyton Manning reported that only autograph requests exceeded fan requests for "more fantasy touchdowns" from him. Fans also often seek inside information on injuries and future stars from coaches.^[18]

I think players who think the game is ruined because of fantasy are wrong. I think it helps the NFL brand for fans and people who would not have been interested if it we were not for fantasy. It changes the reasons why some fans watch the game and especially how but I think fantasy football can only help the brand of the game.

The Running Back Dilemma

This morning, I did something outside of my comfort zone. I drafted Jamaal Charles. It was only a mock draft but it still seemed like I was sky diving without a parachute. I had the fourth pick in the first round. The three obvious running backs were chosen before. These three running backs were Adrian Peterson, Arian Foster and Doug Martin. That left me to pick between Marshawn Lynch, Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy and CJ Spiller.

If the draft was the real deal I probably would have gone with Lynch. He is my guy and I tend to stick with my guys. Jamaal has upside because of the way new Kansas City coach Andy Reid uses his running backs. Jamaal is one of the fastest running backs in the league, that means he could be lethal in the open field. Also, the running game seems to be the go to option for Kansas City so Jamaal will get his touches. One concerning thing about Jamaal is his lack of redzone touches.

CJ Spiller is an enticing pick because of the lack of weapons the Buffalo Bills can throw at an opposing defense. The Bills used CJ in the open field and he was one of the deadliest backs with the ball past the line of scrimmage. Last year, CJ was third in the NFL in yards after contact (YAC). CJ is a sure fire first round pick.

McCoy is a talented running back, there is no denying that. His troubles last year have cast a shadow over his spotlight as the number three running back in ESPN's preseason rankings. New coach Chip Kelly can be creative with how he uses his offense, so the upside is there but Bryce Brown has the potential to take carries away from McCoy.

Marshawn Lynch is heavily used in the Seattle offense. Besides that he is a beast in YAC and can really make any carry in the redzone into a touchdown. His upside is undeniable and his lack of injuries is attractive. Again, I would pick Lynch over any of these guys.

Trent Richardson Is A Draftable Savage

Please watch this video on mute, the music is lame but the video really does show Trent Richardson's potential to be an elite running back in the NFL.

One thing that stood out the first time I watched this highlight video was the sheer power this guy runs with. Watching him break tackles left and right like a young Marshawn Lynch was pretty awesome. I know Marshawn Lynch is not very much older than Trent but years on a running back's football odometer is essential to their production. 

Trent had injury problems last year but the weeks he did play healthy he put up impressive numbers. The other thing that should be noted about Trent is that he plays for the Browns. The Browns are not a good offensive team and that's putting it nicely. Trent will be given a high number of touches, especially at the goal line. Trent is walking the thin line of a 1st round draft pick. He is a great talent in a great system. If I had the last pick in the first round I would go for him and another RB for the pick after that.

Calvin Johnson: A Top Shelf Guy

Calvin Johnson was my first round draft pick in one of my leagues last year. I regretted that pick for the first several weeks of the season because teams were double teaming Calvin, so he did not have any touchdowns until week six. However, in the second half of the season Calvin really turned it up and had a record setting season. Calvin had a great individual year. He had the most receiving yards by more than 400 yards. He was the leader in points for receivers despite having only five touchdowns. To put that into perspective Lance Moore of the Saints had more touchdowns than Calvin. The reason Calvin had 80 more overall points than Moore was because he had 900 more receiving yards. In a points per reception (PPR) league, Calvin would have had a lot more points than Moore.

Although Calvin is the best receiver in the NFL and had the best overall fantasy year for receivers, he is not a first round draft pick in my eyes. The amount of receivers that are draftable has grown more and more since the NFL has made passing a preference for teams with even a decent quarterback. Take the Jaguars for example, they had Chad Henne and Blaine Gabbert at quarter back, yet Cecil Shorts and Justin Blockmon had breakout seasons.

Matthew Berry, the most famous fantasy football analyst and my personal favorite discusses the reasons NOT to draft Calvin in the first round. Berry talks about the importance of running backs and the large market for wide receivers. Its a risk not to draft a receiver as dominate as Calvin but in the long run, it will probably be worth passing on him for a running back and getting a sneaky receiver pick in the later rounds

Strategic Drafting Can Set Up Trades

 Executing a trade that benefits both teams can take a lot of work. The biggest difficulty is finding an owner who needs a type of player that you can afford to trade. One way to do this is to draft running backs the first three rounds and flip those running backs for players that you did not draft. For example, if I pick an elite running back (Adrian Peterson, Arian Foster) in the first round and really good running backs in the next two rounds, then I could try to flip one of the running backs for a really good tight end and a decent running back. This is an obvious risk to take but it can be done.

In a previous blog, Trading Guys: A Mess Or A Thing Of Beauty I discussed what it takes for a trade to be made and what needs to happen for an owner to be interested in your offer.

To follow up on that post, I wanted to discuss what players could be drafted in the first 5 or so rounds that would have owners asking you for a trade. I used running backs as an example because of the importance they have to a fantasy team. Also, the serious demand they have in fantasy football because of the few elite or really good running backs in the NFL. 

So, if I drafted Doug Martin, Marshawn Lynch and CJ Spiller in the first three rounds, I would have a ton of trading leverage. Please note that drafting these guys three rounds in a row would be a serious accomplishment. Really what I am trying to say is draft a top tier running back followed by two very solid running backs. If you can pull this off, there will no doubt be an owner in serious need for a running back. After those three rounds, you should pick wide receivers and a QB, if you can snag a tight end instead of a wide receiver do so. It's important that you leave one position in need.

If I were an owner who had Jason Witten and Randall Cobb I would be very tempted to accept an offer to trade those two for a running back like Lynch and I would be crazy not to trade for Martin.The point I am trying to make is if you get ahold of a surplus of running backs, you could flip one player for two players. This would essentially give you another high draft pick.

Water Cooler Conversations: My First Round Pick

The first pick is a mysterious and profound moment in an owner's life. Who do you pick? What if he bombs, so much weighs on that pick. The guy you pick will pop off the page with a shine that will make you smile like you are staring at a newborn in their mother's arms. OR that guy can hide in the shadows of your roster and make you angry like an old man hates the Communist Party. That is how important the first pick is to your team. My two first picks last year were Tom Brady for my first team and Calvin Johnson for my second team, but they were the 8th and 5th picks respectively.  The one with Tom Brady ended winning the championship because of a deadly Qb/flex combo of Brady and Kaepernick. I think at the 8th pick in the first round, Brady was a smart choice. He was the best Qb on the board and Arian Foster had been picked. I want to share a conversation I had with a fellow owner. It will give an outside perspective, instead of my opinion being repeated over and over.  To respect the owners' anonymity I will call him Owner A.

ME: If you had first pick, who would you go with?

Owner A: Adrian Peterson hands down.

ME: What if it was a PPR league.

Owner A: I would still go with Adrian Peterson. He is too good not to pick. If all the running backs were picked, I would probably pick Calvin Johnson. 

ME: You wouldn't pick Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees? 

Owner A: Nope, quarterbacks are all the same when it comes to points, an elite running back is hard to come by.

Owner A really likes Adrian Peterson. I don't blame him, AP ran for 2097 yards with 12 touchdowns coming off ACL surgery in January. AP is such a good player that the offense mainly runs through him. With the Vikings lacking other threats on offense, AP will be used more and more. 

Any quarterback that starts in the NFL will get you at least 15 points, with the exception of a few. Christian Ponder and Mark Sanchez are two that are undraftable. Decent quarterbacks can get 15 points  on a weekly basis, but even that is not all that great. However, an elite quarterback will get you 20-25 points on average, but can go off for 30 plus points any given week. The difference between an elite running back and a decent running back in terms of points is far greater than the difference between an elite quarterback and decent quarterback. 

Cam Newton vs Robert Griffin

Robert Griffin and Cam Newton have a few things in common when it comes to fantasy. One thing is they do not have stellar receiving cores. Cam Newton has Steve Smith, who is a dynamic receiver but that is really all Cam has to work with. Lets look at Cam's numbers for the 2012 season:

Passing Yards: 3869        

Passing Touchdowns: 19

Passing Interceptions: 12

Rushing Yards: 741

Rushing Touchdowns: 8

Fumbles: 3

The turnovers and lack of wins the Panthers had everyone saying that Cam had an off year. 15 turnovers is a lot, but with a young quarterback there will be mistakes. In terms of passing yards combined with rushing yards, Cam had a great year. He finished fourth overall in total points right behind Tom Brady for all quarterbacks.

Another thing the two quarterbacks have in common is their youth and their ability to rush, which is a huge plus for fantasy. Here is what Robert Griffin III did in 2012:

Passing Yards: 3200

Passing Touchdowns: 20

Passing Interceptions: 5

Rushing Yards: 815

Rushing Touchdowns: 7

Fumbles: 2

For a rookie Robert had an awesome year. The lack of turnovers was impressive and shows how well Robert worked in the Redskins' system. Robert is very injury prone so I might pick Cam over him. One  thing that is impressive about Robert is the rushing yard and touchdowns, his running abilities are unique.

Putting A Face To The Guys

If you are really a superstitious fantasy nut, than look at the head shot of a guy you are thinking of drafting. If the guy is smiling and does not have anything that sticks out, than that's a good sign. But, if the guy has an abundance of tattoos and piercings, he may be over compensating for something. Whether it's low fantasy production or a drug problem, one thing is clear, I won't draft that guy either way. Here are three guys that I like to look at...because of their fantasy potential.

This guy right here? This guy is Jamaal Charles. A slightly injury prone running back, who has a huge opportunity to kill it this season. Andy Reid loves to use his running backs for all they have. He is a slight risk to pick first, but the upside potential makes him one hell of a guy.

This guy is a tease. DO NOT get lured in by the name Vernon Davis. Scott Chandler scored more fantasy points than Vernon last year. The chances of you knowing what team Scott Chandler plays for are like the odds that I am going to draft this guy. If you didn't know by now there is no way I am ever going to draft this guy. Pass on him unless you have a gun to your head and the person demands you draft him, than that is a good reason to draft Vernon. P.S. Notice the weird and potentially corny tattoos  peaking through the jerseys. I am just saying, there are signs.

This guy is Brandon Marshall. A total beast. If you are in a standard league and especially if your are in a points per reception (ppr) league, you should pick Brandon as your first receiver. If you pick him first round after all the elite quarterbacks and running backs are gone that is a risky move. If you watched the Bears last year it was would've been obvious that Brandon was his favorite target. Brandon had over 1500 yards receiving and 11 touchdowns. His numbers will stay solid going into 2013.

Trouble In New England. Who Will Benefit?

The New England Patriots have had a deadly 1-2 punch combo at the tight end position for the past few seasons. As this off-season progresses, the pair of Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez is likely to be no more. Seeing how Gronk has had FIVE surgeries this past off season, four of which have been on his forearm and the other on his back. Gronk is unlikely to play the first few weeks of the season. Keep in mind that he is still 100 percent draft eligible and should not be overlooked, ever. Hernandez is a different story. The guy was arrested this morning and was charged with murder as well as five gun-related charges. I am no lawyer but that doesn't sound good for Hernandez. I still don't understand how a professional athlete with a fiancee and an 8 month-old baby could still be committing such ridiculous crimes, but that is besides the point. The question that is to be asked in terms of fantasy is who will benefit from these off-season events?
   
My professional and expert opinion is that Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola and Shane Vereen will get more touches throughout the season. New England is very capable of giving anyone on their team great numbers as long as they have Tom Brady at quarterback. Julian Edelman has great speed and will be effective in the slot. Amendola has had trouble with injuries in the past but when healthy he is deadly on long routes. New England's backfield is tricky with a number of running backs getting touches. Steven Ridley was the main back for their run game but Vereen proved to be effective in the passing game. Vereen and Amendola could be considered sleepers.

Talk Trash At Your Own Risk

Talking trash or smack as Yahoo likes to call it is a risky business in fantasy. I only talk trash to someone I have a grudge against or someone who talks down to my guys. Never disrespect CJ Spiller when he was my sleeper. CJ is a stud. That brings me to my main point, what not to say when talking trash. Its important to know what not to say because you never know what is going to happen.


NEVER:

•    ...  Ever base your trash talk off of the projected points. Projections do not really mean much, so know the players you have and the other team has.

•  ... Ever talk trash if you auto-drafted your team. If you do than you're just a bad bad person. On the other hand, if the team you're playing auto-drafted, talk trash as much as you possibly can.
•   ... Ever be afraid of posting a league wide message of a beat down you put on a sorry opposing owner. Even if you had a huge week with one player or your whole team went off, express your emotions. Which brings me to my next point...
•    ... Ever bottle up your emotions. Let go all of your joy, anger, misery, and satisfaction. Your guys can have you really all over the place so it is healthiest to just let it all out
•    ... Ever watch with the other owner in person. Fantasy football is supposed to bring people together, not create violence. Which brings me to my next point...
•    ... Ever be unprepared for a fight. Whether it be a physical, verbal or mental fight, always be on point. Your name and fantasy reputation is at stake.

Take these bullet points, write them down on a piece of paper and put it on your fridge. Maybe your bathroom mirror will work or even on the ceiling above your bed. Get this in your head and live by these bullet points. At no point while writing this blog was I joking or smiling, this is a serious reality you should live in.

To Start Or To Sit, That Is The Question.

There is more to fantasy football than just drafting a team. Managing a team is a grind that lasts the whole season. There are responsibilities like waiver wire pickups, trades, smack talk and deciding which guys to start. Deciding which guys to start is a very important skill to have as a fantasy owner. There are a few questions an owner must ask before deciding to bench a starter or start a bench player:   
      

1.   Make sure the guy is playing that week. Trust this advice, I have started someone off my bench because he had a good match up and he ended up getting hurt in practice.
2.  Decide which player has a truly better match up. If the team your player is going against has truly bad defense against the run, than start that player. No matter what, start that player. Any mediocre running back can have a good game against the bottom five run defenses in the league. The same goes for pretty much any position but for running backs most of all.
3.  Make sure your player is going to get the most touches on his team. Nothing is more aggravating than seeing your guy loses touches to some random guy.
4. If the team your guy plays for has a horrible defense and your guy is a running back, sit that guy. His team will only try to pass in order to play catch up. But, if your guy is a wide receiver or quarterback, start that guy. Carson Palmer and Dwayne Bowe both crushed garbage time points when their teams were getting blown out.
5. Never sit a guy because he projected less points than another guy. Projections do not amount to jack squat.
6.  Last but not least, go with your gut. Do NOT think too much about your guys. Whatever decision you make first, go with that choice.

The Game Changes When You Have Your Guys

This post is from the Wikipedia fantasy football page. The excerpt below is from the Effect on Spectatorship, where the author of the article explains the effect owning a fantasy football team has on watching a football:

A fantasy owner might have the quarterback from one team and the running back from the opposing team on his roster, and end up hoping both teams score frequently. However, he will only cheer passing scores from the first team and running scores from the second. As another example, if a team is up by many touchdowns, the "owner" of a running back on the losing team may be upset since the losing team will prefer passing instead of rushing for the score. Finally, a fantasy owner may wish to see an opposing team tie or take the lead in the final minutes of a game, thus giving the ball back to his player with one last chance to drive and score.

I thought this paragraph hit the right points of how an owner will root for specific things to happen. However, I thought the phrasing was not helpful for the reader to properly understand what an owner cheers for each game. I thought a specific example of a what an owner wants to happen in a game for their player would be more helpful. Here are the changes I made:

The way a fantasy owner watches a game is greatly affected if a player on their team is playing. An owner will root for specific things to happen in order for their player(s) to score points. For example, someone who has a running back will root for a goal line situation or for the team the running back plays for to be up by a significant amount of points. If the running back's team is on the goal line, then a running play is more likely to be called. If the running back's team is up by a significant amount of points, his team will call more running plays in order to run out the clock. The more running plays called, the more points for that running back. Different scenarios will provide certain players an opportunity to score points for fantasy owners

The owner of a fantasy team will suddenly be intrigued in seemingly random games. I am from New York and I am a Giants fan. Last year I had Percy Harvin and Doug Martin on my team. So when the Bucs and the Vikings played last year, I was very into the game. I wanted the Bucs to score quickly and get well ahead of the Vikings. This would give Doug Martin plenty of opportunity to rush for serious yards and possibly to score. At the same time, the Vikings would make an attempt to get back into the game. The fastest way to do that is by passing. Percy Harvin was their number one receiver. This is just one example of the effect having a fantasy team has on viewing any football game. The Bucs did score a lot of points in that game. Martin had a great game but the Vikings were unable to get Harvin the ball. Unfortunately, I had benched Martin that week, which brings me to my next point.

If you are truly a spiteful fantasy owner like myself, then you hope players you benched have a very poor performance. I never hope a player I trade or bench gets injured. But, if it's an injury that slows the player down or prevents him from playing in the game, it's not a bad thing to be happy about. I say this because there is a great disappointment if a benched player does very well. It could be the deciding factor between a win and a loss. This same way of cheering for a players demise goes for the opposing fantasy owners' players.

New Guy in Town: A Rookie Worth Drafting

Drafting a rookie is risky. Last year was an immaculate collection of rookies. Trent Richardson was a fantasy threat when he wasn't injured. Trent was the main threat on a not talented offense in Cleveland. Packer's rookie back Eddie Lacy is a great option to draft, especially in later rounds.

The thing I love about Lacy is his size and aggressive running style. The thing that makes me salivate about Lacy's sneaky potential is the goal line touchdown possibilities. The Packer's have one of the best offenses in the league. Aaron Rodgers kills it every game and will no doubt have the offense on the goal line multiple times a week. Lacy is 230 pounds, giving him an advantage especially with the coaching staff giving him the nod in goal line situations.

Cedric Benson was the Packer's main running back last year and did very well despite the pass heavy offense headed by Rodgers. The Packer's tried to emphasize more running in their offense to add some variety. If Lacy earns a starting job he will get a solid number of carries. This is not a lock because Johnathan Franklin was also drafted by the Packers. I feel confident the Packers will give the carries to Lacy because of his size and performance in college. Since Lacy is a rookie, I would wait until the later rounds, maybe after the 6th or 7th round. He would be a great player to have on the bench and maybe even in the flex slot. I don't always draft rookies, but when I do, I prefer savages. Eddie Lacy is a savage. And yes I really just did a play on the Dos Equis commercial. Deal with it.

Hate this Guy, Love that Guy

My posts have been all over the place recently, so I am going to slow down the pace a little bit. I am going to bash a player I don't particularly think has any significant value for this year. Then I am going to praise a guy that is not a huge name and at the same time is not a sleeper. Having these two types of players in mind is huge for the draft and the rest of your season. I am going to bash a player first. For one reason and one reason only, I love bashing guys I hate. I know that it is irrational for someone to hate a player because his fantasy value is misleading or sub-par.

The player that I am going to bash for this year is Joe Flacco. Look, I get it, he is the reigning Super Bowl MVP. The thing about that is it does not translate to fantasy at all. All that matters is the first 16 or 17 weeks, anything after that is not important when it comes to fantasy. Let me compare Flacco's 2012 season to another player. Josh Freeman had more points last year... let that sink in. Josh Freeman had more points than Joe Flacco during the regular season. Flacco is inconsistent from week to week and does not have a notable receiving core. An elite fantasy quarterback will put up points no matter who he is throwing too. Flacco just is not that guy. With the subtraction of Boldin, I just can't believe Flacco will do much.


An under the radar player that is a great draft pick that won't stand out on your roster is Dwayne Bowe. He has been the best wide out in Kansas City for some time. The upgrade of Alex Smith at quarter back will greatly benefit Bowe owners. Andy Reid is known to use his running backs and get great value out of them. This will open up the passing game for Bowe because he is by far the best and most targeted receiver. Plus even if Kansas City has a bad defense they will provide a surplus of garbage time fantasy points.

If there is any message I want to get across it is do NOT draft Flacco before the 5th round and try to get Bowe after the 5th. Roll the dice for under the radar studs like Bowe.

Trading Guys: A Mess or A Thing of Beauty

Trading is a huge part of owning a fantasy team. During the fantasy season, 90 percent of my phone calls are fantasy related. In no way is that depressing. If I am calling you and you're in my league, there is a 97 percent chance fantasy will be brought up. I love talking trades, even if I know the person I am talking too won't make a trade. I made two trades for my championship winning team last year and looking at them on paper is just plain sexy.

My first trade was Alfred Morris for Rob Gronkowski. I am trading Morris in this situation and getting Gronk. A background story is needed because on paper this deal looks like assault with a deadly weapon. The team I traded with had Jimmy Graham as well and had Willis McGahee and Jaquizz Rodgers as his running backs. Those running backs were backed up by Danny Woodhead and Rashard Mendenhall. It's safe to say that this kids team was hurting for some running backs. I had just what he needed and he wanted just what I was willing to give away. Alfred Morris was my BACKUP running back, I already had Lynch and Martin going HAM. My flex position was weak at the time. This was before my Kaepernick waiver wire pickup. Basically this deal worked out because I had an expendable piece on my team that was extremely valuable to another team. Whenever you have something in demand for another team, it is wise to talk shop with that team. This happens mostly with injuries, I offered that trade when McGahee blew out his knee. Gronk got injured a few weeks after this trade was made but I was lucky enough to pick up Kap.

When approaching someone to make a trade NEVER make the first offer, just let the other owner (owner sounds better then manager or kid) what player you have that he/she needs. Im going with he from now on. If you're a girl, sorry but it's more realistic, it's nothing personal. When he asks what player I want, I ask what he is willing to give away. The owner will try to low ball you or downplay what he is willing to give up. This is when I play hard to get. It works on 16 year old girls and their feelings just as much as it does with 22 year old guys with their fantasy teams. ALWAYS squeeze as much as you can without insulting the other team's owner. An inevitable question the other owner might ask, is why I am willing to trade the player I am offering away. This is tricky, remember knowing the intelligence of the owner is important. If you offer Antonio Gates for Rodgers, the guy will be pissed that you think he's a scrub. Tell the other owner the truth, people can sense bullshit for the most part.

The key is not to highlight why you want his players or even to make a trade in the first place. Which brings me to the second trade that I made last year. I traded Dwayne Bowe for Marcel Reese. The owner I traded with desperately needed a WR and Dwayne was having a hot start to mediocre middle type of season so his numbers were decieving. One thing about a guy like Dwayne is the target pitch. I pitched that Dwayne gets targeted among the best WR's in the game and it didn't matter Matt Cassel was throwing to him. The other team's owner agreed and did not see the value in Marcel Reese because his rushing numbers were alright and McFadden seemed as if he were coming back from his ankle injury. The thing that attracted me to Marcel the most were his receiving abilities and the dump pass crazy offense the Raiders used. Having seen what Marcel was capable of in the open field with some blockers, his fantasy value was hard to miss. It's important to speak on what you want the owner to hear and to be silent on what you want him to miss.

Which Website is Better for Fantasy: Espn or Yahoo!?

The two real juggernauts for fantasy sports are ESPN and Yahoo!. I have only had a fantasy basketball team for ESPN and did not like the format and how the match ups were displayed. For my personal needs, I want clear visual stats and what players are in what positions. For example, Yahoo! (ok that's the last time I'm gonna use an exclamation mark, I feel like Elaine right now). As I was saying Yahoo (see what I did there) has a clear and organized way of displaying your team players and there stats for each week and the season. I have heard mainly negative things about ESPN's fantasy football setup.

I have asked maybe 8 people and 7 of them said it was MUCH worse than Yahoo. The complaints against ESPN is the layout of stats and how the head to head match ups are presented. This might come as a shock because if you had to choose which website for fantasy might be more user friendly and popular among participants, most unknowingly would choose ESPN. I asked several of my "colleagues" what website they would choose and all (five) of them chose Yahoo and it was not even a question, Yahoo was the easy winner. I only asked people I trust and know that they are fantasy experts. The ESPN site was said to be messy and unflattering. That's actually the word my friend used to describe ESPN's fantasy football. When this happens, you know that ESPN just is missing something. Whatever that something is, Yahoo definitely has. If you're new to the fantasy world, I strongly recommend Yahoo.

Tight Ends are a Diamond in the Rough

A good guy is hard to come by, especially when it's time to draft a tight end. A great tight end is arguably the hardest reliable player to draft in fantasy football. There are four elite tight ends in football. Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, Jimmy Graham and Jason Witten are the four tight ends worth drafting in the first five rounds. Tony Gonzalez is an exception because he can be looked over as he was last year and produced the most points for a tight end last year (tied with Jimmy Graham). Hernandez and Gronk will have interesting years this year due to Gronks impressive four off-season surgeries. Hernandez will most likely have more targets if Gronk will not recover in time, but Gronk's upside is too much to ignore.

Especially since Adrian Peterson was overlooked and single handily carried teams in any fantasy league. Jason Witten might not score an attractive amount of touchdowns on a consistent basis like Gronk but Witten will have yards on yards week in and week out. I am a Romo hater so listen to these next few sentences knowing I completely hold a grudge against Romo and the Cowboys. Tony Romo sucks. He can turn it on at the end of the game after he already had turned the ball over 4 maybe even 5 times and the Cowboys are down by three touchdowns. The point I am trying to make is Romo loves him some Jason Witten. Romo targets Witten the most of any Dallas wideout each game and some of the most in the league. Jimmy Graham is an awesome draft pick post second round. Hes athletic and a beast in the open field. Brees is an elite quarterback and has many targets to a large array of players every week but chances are Graham will be a target and six points is very very likely.

My History With Guys and Draft Layout

To make my blog and my arguments valid, I believe I should tell the history of my fantasy life. I started to play fantasy football in August of 2011. My first draft was a horrible and embarrassing display of being an amateur. I picked the Jets defense 6th round and Ladanian Tomlinson the round before. I was unprepared for this live draft and had ZERO idea of what was a good pick and what type of player should be drafted each round. To make something clear, picking a defense before the 13th round is borderline psychotic and Ladanian Tomlinson was a washed up rag doll who played for the Jets. I mentioned he played for the Jets because 98 percent of Jets players suck for fantasy sports.There is no other way to put it. The year after was a better year, because I got all the way to the championship in one league and won the championship in the other. Last year was a good year for me, my success was a direct result of my pre-draft research. I followed an outline I had set up before the draft. It went something like this:
           1st round- RB/QB
           2nd round- RB
           3rd round- TE
Lets talk about these three rounds. These three guys are the most important guys in your life, you will always remember them for the rest of the season. If its a mid to late first-round pick and most of the main RB's have been taken (Foster, Rice, McCoy last year and Peterson, Foster, Martin for this year) Pick an elite QB. Elite QB's are Brady, Rodgers, and Brees. I'm not saying they are the only elite QB's in the league or the only elite fantasy quarterbacks, they are three guys that week in and week out will give a solid performance. Rodgers struggled with points at times last season, but that was due to injury, a bigger emphasis on the running game which the Packers will (hopefully) not do again, and a spotty offensive line. The second round is a must for RB, there really is no excuse not to draft a RB, unless you have a magical sleeper that no one will pick in the later rounds. Banking on sleepers is dangerous, so tread carefully when dealing with guys that are unknown to the fantasy world.
      So far we have drafted an elite RB/QB, an RB who would be available in the second round and still be crucial to your team a la Marshawn Lynch or Frank Gore. The third round pick should be for an elite tight end. A Gronkowski pick in the third round would be HUGE for your team. Gronk is a must have guy. The tight end position is overlooked, especially in early rounds. So its best to get the best from an already thin position. Aaron Hernandez and Jimmy Graham are also hot picks for the third round.
   Since the WR position is so deep that in the NFL, the way the rules and offenses have trended, a new stud can flourish out of a team any given week. Which can be a gift such as Danario Alexander last year or a curse like Greg Little who was a wild card from week to week. For the next three rounds (4,5,6) I would put all my eggs in the WR basket. Look for guys who are the number one target for QBs to throw too and ones that have a solid QB throwing to them. Greg Jennings on Minnesota is not going to be as effective as lets say James Jones or Jordy Nelson on Green Bay. So Jennings has Christian Ponder throwing to him and Nelson and Jones have Aaron Rodgers throwing to them. If you don't know that Christian Ponder is a Kia of NFL quarterbacks while Rodgers is a Cadillac, then you need to get your head out of your ass before you keep reading.
      My championship draft order was skewed a little because of the scoring settings in the 12 team roster. The flex position was TE/QB/WR/RB so I picked my wide receivers from rounds 3 to 5. I had the 8th pick in the first round, so I went with the elite QB route:
1. (8)Tom Brady (NE - QB)
2. (17) Marshawn Lynch (Sea - RB)
3. (32) Roddy White (Atl - WR)
4. (41)Percy Harvin (Sea - WR)
5.(56)Doug Martin (TB - RB)
6.(65)Dwayne Bowe (KC - WR)
7.(80)Donald Brown (Ind - RB)
8.(89)Tony Gonzalez (Atl - TE)
9.(104)Isaac Redman (Pit - RB)
10.(113)Baltimore (Bal - DEF)
11.(128)Santana Moss (Was - WR)
12.(137)Martellus Bennett (Chi - TE)
13.(152)Dan Bailey (Dal - K)
14.(161)Eric Weddle (SD - S)
15.(176)Danny Amendola (NE - WR)
16.(185)Russell Wilson (Sea - QB)

Note the second pick as a solid and reliable RB in Lynch. Hes solid and reliable because of his roll in the Seahawks offense and because hes a beast. Doug Martin was a great fifth round pick, no one was entirely sure what he could do as the number one option in Tampa Bay but he killed it. I was lucky to have picked Tony Gonzalez in the 8th round that wont happen again but he had a great year and Atlanta is a hot bed of WR talent, which makes Matt Ryan has great pick as well. The two picks that are not in stand out rounds and come semi-under the radar are Dwayne Bowe and Danny Amendola. Both number one in terms of targets on their respective teams last year. Because their QBs were decent and not especially talented, they would look for WRs they trusted the most.  In upcoming blogs, new value will be discussed after the many transactions that have occurred throughout this past off-season.

All About The Draft

Have you ever had a guy fill you up with hope and then crush all of your dreams? Going into a fantasy football draft unprepared is the best way to leave you heartbroken at the end of the season and out of the playoffs. Picking the Right Guy for You will help you decide what type of guy out there is the right match for you and your future. Remember, its all about your guys.For a fantasy football draft there are a few things that you MUST know. First, know who is the right guy for you. Next, know what order you want your guys in. Lastly, later rounds are as important as the first three. Only amatuers go for big names without doing research first. A poorly drafted team is like eatling undercooked fish, it leaves you wanting to puke and curl up in a corner not wanting to move. Reading up on new transactions happening in the NFL is big, as well as checking up on injuries and new starters for teams. A draft order is huge. Knowing when you want your guys and what type of guys you want to draft and when. A well drafted guy is important, drafting a guy too early can be deadly to your team.