Each draft pick is about comparing players to each other and knowing who is overrated and underrated. In this post I will talk about a player who is overrated and underrated in each offensive position. It is important to know who has more value at each position. I will not bother talking about things like,who is more valuable Aaron Rodgers or Kevin Kolb. I want to get into players who are not stand-out, elite players but players who are very important to an owners success and might not exactly pop off a roster.
Quarter Back
The Hype around Andrew Luck last year was well deserved. He was the 8th best quarterback in terms of fantasy scoring. He averaged 22.9 points a game in PPR formatted leagues. He had 28 overall touchdowns and showed impressive pocket passing skills as well as surprising running abilities. However, a coaching change from the pass happy Bruce Arians made Luck have more passing attempts, he totaled 627 last year. The Colts coach Chuck Pagano, who was out most of last year due to illness, is known for a more conservative style of play. With additions to the Colts defense, Luck will not have to pass as much because they will not always be trying to overcome a deficit. Pagano will choose to run the ball more especially with a bolstered offensive line and with the addition of Ahmad Bradshaw, the Colts will run the ball more. Luck is a great talent in the NFL, but in terms of his fantasy value, 2013 will be a down year.
UNDERRATED: Matthew Stafford
There has been a lot of criticism of Stafford because of his low production last year. Stafford finished the year 10th in scoring and had 17 interceptions with just 20 touchdown passes. While those numbers are disappointing especially after his huge year in 2011, Stafford led the league in passing attempts in the past two seasons. The problem the Lions had last year was their passing game was the only threat to opposing defenses. Especially, since their defense was giving the other team huge leads. With the addition of Reggie Bush and a healthier offensive line, some of the pressure will be taken off Stafford. I think this will give him a better opportunity to score.
Running Back
Arian Foster is one of the best backs in the league. He scores at will when on the goal line and is for sure a top 5 fantasy running back. Most pre-rankings for fantasy football have Foster as the second running back to be chosen. I think that this is too high for Foster and that he could see a down year. Running backs have a short time frame in their careers where they are in their prime. Foster has led the league in carries the past two seasons. Last year he led the league with 351 rushing attempts. Despite that he was the third best running back in terms of overall fantasy points in PPR leagues. He rushed for the 6th most yards and was in the top 15 in receptions. Health is a major concern for Foster going into this season, he is reported to have calf problems already. Another question mark for Foster is whether or not he will have all the goal line opportunities that he has had in past seasons.
Trent Richardson will have a great year this year if he can stay healthy. With injuries and a shaky offense last year Trent still managed to get within the top ten in scoring. He averaged 17 points per game and had a suprising 51 catches. The offensive line is the same as last year which is good news because they are young and athletic linesman, especially their left tackle Joe Thomas. Look for Trent to repeat his scoring numbers but improve his rushing yards dramatically.
Wide Receiver
Stevie Johnson is the go too receiver for the Buffalo Bills but will not be of great value to fantasy owners this year. With one of the worst Quarterback situations in the league, the Bills passing game will suffer. Unless EJ Manuel will surprise everyone in the NFL with a great season, Stevie's numbers will decline from his 6 touchdown and 1,000 yards plus last year. Another factor riding against Stevie is the new coach in town that is known for his heavy rushing approach to the game.
Reggie Wayne has been an exciting player to watch the past few seasons. After Peyton Manning left the Colts, it was thought that Reggie's fantasy production would go down dramatically. Last year, however, Wayne was targeted 195 times. That was second in the league and was far more than anyone had predicted. He finished with over 1,300 yards receiving and 100 catches. Especially in PPR leagues, Reggie is a steal with the depth of receivers in the league.
Tight End
I can't blog enough about how much I do not like Vernon Davis as a fantasy owner. I have nothing against the guy, I think he is talented and athletic but as a fantasy tight end, he is past his prime. Last year he had multiple games with zero points. Just because he has had hope surround his name this off-season because of injuries, does not have me thinking differently about Vernon. DO NOT DRAFT HIM.
Martellus Bennet is a gifted receiver who has shown flashes of being a solid fantasy producer. Although he had only 600 yards receiving and 5 touchdowns, Bennett is a great athletic force in the passing game. The Bears had only one true threat in the passing game and that was Brandon Marshall. With defenses putting more focus on Brandon, I expect Bennett to have more than the 90 targets Eli Manning threw to him last year.
Focus on getting the elite players in the first few rounds. Expect these players with the exception of the running backs to be in the later rounds. It's important to differentiate values between players in fantasy, especially with the clock ticking and it is your turn to pick.
