A Trade That Paid Off

It was the end of the second week of the regular season in the NFL, RGIII had just gone off against the Saints. He was looking like the stud of the fantasy season. My friend who will go by the name of Gill, had RGIII sitting on the bench because he had Cam Newton starting. I had Big Ben from Pittsburgh at quarterback so I was looking for an upgrade. My other friend who will go by the name of Josh, needed a running back. Gill needed a wide receiver, which I had plenty of.

This was the making of my first and only three way trade. At the time I realized of the potential three way trade it was already midnight. I could not see myself falling asleep with a trade as big as this one hanging in the air. The wide receivers I had last year were stupidly good, I wasn't willing to give any of them up. I had Brandon Marshall, Calvin Johnson and Julio Jones. That meant I had to give up a running back. I had CJ Spiller, Alfred Morris and Frank Gore. I was most willing to trade Gore for RGIII.

Gill was not going for that trade because he was in serious need for a wide receiver. I was not giving Gill any of my receivers so I had to get one of Josh's receivers for a running back. Gill wanted Dez Bryant from Josh and Josh wanted Gore from me.

By two o'clock in the morning all three of us decided to trade Gore, RGIII and Dez Bryant. This is how it went down:
Josh traded me Dez Bryant
I Traded Josh Frank Gore
I flipped Dez Bryant for RGIII.

The offers that were made until all three parties could agree on something were endless. Finding a medium that fit everyone's needs is the trickiest part. After a few weeks of RGIII carrying my team and dominating while Cam Newton carried out a disappointing year, Gill regretted making that trade. Overall, I think I came out on top of that trade even though running back served to be a minor bump in the road for me. 

Vernon Davis Ready To Step Up?

Michael Crabtree is injured this off season and will be placed on the PUP list. Targets will be increasing for Anquan Boldin and Vernon Davis. Vernon Davis has the athleticism and talent to be a top tier tight end but has disappointed fantasy owners recently. Last year Davis struggled greatly with less and less targets and getting zero fantasy points on several occasions. When Colin Kaepernick got the starting job last year, Davis had fantasy performances of 14, 0, 1, 0, 1, 2, 0.

Those numbers are just awful and for a player as talented as Davis, it is hard to tell whether or not he will put up big numbers like he has in the past. In 2010 and 2011 Davis had over 90 targets each year. Last season he had 61 and significantly less receptions with only 40 for the 2012 season. His touchdowns have declined from his 2009 breakout season when he had 13 touchdowns. Last year he had only 5 touchdowns in 16 games played.

With the recent injuries to San Francisco's receiving core, Davis may see more targets. ESPN reports that Davis has recently taken snaps at wide receiver. This would mean Davis could possibly see more production from a fantasy standpoint. I would think Davis        will be available late in upcoming drafts and has the opportunity to show that he still can produce at a high level.



                                                                          

Newest Injury Updates

Injuries are just about the biggest news updates that come from training camps. There have been three significant injuries that will affect your upcoming draft. Wide receivers can be vulnerable to injuries during the season but during training camp injuries are usually serious. Training camp injuries usually deal with torn tendons, broken limbs and other serious injuries dealing with the legs or anything below the hips. With these injuries new opportunities rise

The first of three players I will be talking about is Jeremy Maclin. Maclin tore his ACL recently at training camp and will miss the entire 2013 season. He had the same injury to the same knee seven years ago. Maclin is a very talented receiver who was targeted the most of any Eagle receivers. The receiver to likely absorb Maclin's targets is Riley Cooper. Cooper is not as athletic as Maclin but will fit well into Chip Kelly's new system because of his size.

The second player that will be discussed is Dennis Pitta. Pitta recently fractured his hip and had surgery that will put him out for the remainder of the season. This injury was devastating for the Ravens because stud receiver Anquan Boldin left the team for San Fransisco this season. These two players were Joe Flacco's favorite targets last year. The question now is who will step up in Pitta's absence? The Ravens recently signed free agent Vincent Shancoe and have reported Ed Dickson will have to step up his receiving duties this season.




Last but not least, Percy Harvin has been reportedly diagnosed with a slight tear in his hip and may start the season on the Physically Unable to Perform list, otherwise known as the PUP list. If a player is put on the PUP list they are unable to play for the first six weeks of the season. Harvin was just recently traded to the Seattle Seahawks and is an incredibly talented receiver. If he does play in the beginning of the season, he will be a dangerous receiver. Sydney Rice and Golden Tate will see more targets if Harvin is unable to be healthy enough for the start of the season.

Interviewing Super Bowl Host Committee Employee

If you haven't heard the Super Bowl will be hosted in New Jersey this year. The championship game will be played at the Meadowlands where the Jets and the Giants play their home games. I recently interviewed an employee of the Super Bowl Host Committee who would like to remain anonymous about fantasy football:

ME: Do you have a fantasy football team?
Super Bowl Host Employee: Yes, I love fantasy football. I have no team I really follow or root for, so I root for individual players

Me: How do you think fantasy football changes the way fans watch the NFL?
SBHE: I think fans have a deeper viewing experience when they have fantasy teams. Whether the fans are talking about the games or researching players, there is a deeper connection between the NFL and the fans.  The way fans watch the game is certainly evolving from the traditional way fans used to watch football. There are different ways to see what is happening around the league every Sunday instead of just watching the one on CBS or FOX.

 ME: What do you think about Redzone? Its a program that shows every scoring play from every game.
SBHE: I think Redzone is great. I know what it is, my friend had it last year so I went over to his house too watch. I think it is the ultimate viewing experience for fans. I think it might affect the ratings for the games on CBS or FOX but with Redzone you don't have to flip back and forth from channel to channel because there are no commercials.

ME: Who is a player or players that you would like to draft this upcoming season?
SBHE: I think Matt Ryan (pictured to the right) is going to have a huge year. I like his wide outs Roddy White and especially Julio Jones, watching him play is exciting. I think Stephen Jackson will have a great year if he stays healthy.                                
                                       
There you have it, yet another person who thinks fantasy football is a great way to get involved in the NFL. The person I interviewed was an avid fantasy football owner who was excited to get back into another great season in the NFL.

Promising Running Back Oppurtunities

In the NFL, teams without a solid running back will try to find a new fit at the start of every season. Sometimes through free agency teams find some but most of the time teams look within their organization. Two players that are not rookies who have an opportunity to start for their teams are Daryl Richardson/ Isiah Pead and Lamar Miller.

This is Lamar Miller of the Miami Dolphins. With the departure of Reggie Bush, Lamar can start for the Dolphins. There is no guarantee Lamar can produce at a high fantasy level every week, but it is important for fantasy owners to look for sleepers. Realistically, Lamar is going to be a solid flex starter who can be picked in later rounds.

                                      VS









                                                                                             
Daryl Richardson                                                                                                         Isiah Pead


Daryl is listed as the protected starter going into training camp this summer.  St. Louis has said that it will be a battle for the starting role between Daryl and Isiah. Isiah is the return man and has explosive speed, while Daryl is more of a between the tackles runner with power and speed. It is too early to tell who will get the starting job. In most drafts, Daryl is lasting until the seventh round and Pead is staying until the ninth round. I would pick either of these two as safety picks but I am hesitant to pick these guys before the eighth round.
    

How-To Post: Efficient Way To Collect Money For the League

It is in my experience, that collecting money from everyone in the league can be a challenge. Some owners will procrastinate, some will try to avoid paying, it is important for the commissioner to collect. For college kids especially these things are expected to happen. In the leagues I am in, the owners live all over the country, so online collecting is the best way to handle any problems the owners might give a commissioner. The best website I have seen for this exact purpose is leaguesafe.com. Here is a step by step process for setting up a leaguesafe account:

1) Go to leaguesafe.com.
2) Click on "Get Started" and create an account, its safe and easy.
3) Create the league name and for what sport the fantasy league is in.
4) Set the league payments to credit and debit cards because that is what most people pay with.
5) Set whatever entry fee was decided upon.
6) To ensure people will pay on time, preferably before the draft set up a late fee. This works as extra incentive for owners to pay on time.
7) Collect every email and invite each owner, this is tedious and can be annoying but it is a direct line for people to pay so they do not have to find the website. Trust that people will find excuses not to pay.
8) Set the "Auto-Nag" setting on payment settings, the website will email every owner that has not paid.
9) Set collection to " Commissioner has total control". Personally, I like this the best it takes away all confusion and can dealt with at a later time.

Leaguesafe is a trusted website and is incredibly cheap to use. I think it costs 75 cents to pay and the winner has a check sent to them or direct deposit in a PayPal account. Even then the website only takes no more than $1.25 from an owners winnings.

A Genius Talking About His Guys

Matthew Berry is a very well known fantasy writer. He has a book coming out and is my favorite fantasy sports writer. Berry recently wrote about a mock draft he participated in and discussed what his approach into each round was and the reasons for his pick that round. The format for the league the mock draft was a 12 team league with a points per reception (PPR) format. Here is Berry's blog post.

This blog post was great for a pre draft approach that every owner should have. Anything can happen while drafting so practice is a great help to be prepared for the unexpected. Having an idea of what position to draft first and what to look for in the later rounds is crucial. Certain players have value in a PPR format while others lose value. Running backs who catch the ball as well as run the ball have increased value. Reggie Bush and Derron Sproles are very good PPR running backs.

One thing that you cannot be totally prepared for is what pick you will have in the first round. Another thing is if the guy you were hoping to pick has already been picked. In this situation, it is very important to have ranks for each position. Remember, expect the unexpected. Get your guys. Do not pick any Jets and all will be alright.

A Blast From The Past

Looking back on a past post of mine I talked about how watching football can be dramatically altered when an owner has a player in the game they are watching. In the blog post I showed how I added a paragraph where I discussed how owners root for certain situations to happen while watching a football game so one of their players can score points for their team. My paragraph is still on the Fantasy Football (American rules) page, but there are two additional paragraphs that have been added to the section where my paragraph is. The first paragraph talks about the increased ratings and viewership of football because of football:

The explosive popularity of fantasy sports, coupled with the availability of venues showcasing numerous live football games via satellite, has had significant effects on football viewing and rooting habits among participants. Fantasy sports players watch more game telecasts, buy more tickets and spend money at stadiums at a much higher rate than general sports fans. For example, 55 percent of fantasy sports players report watching more sports on television since they started playing fantasy sports. ^[15] Fantasy participants also are reported to attend 0.22 to 0.57 more NFL games in person per season.^[16] The NFL entered into a reported five-year, $600 million deal in 2006 with Sprint that was driven at least in part because of fantasy sports, allowing subscribers to draft and monitor their teams with their cellphones. ^[17] Many sports and football-related sports news shows discuss fantasy-related topics. Besides the fictional The League, multiple TV programs that focus on fantasy football news exist; examples include ESPN's Fantasy Football Now and CBS's Fantasy Football Today.

The numbers the editor writes are interesting. I know in my personal case that I watched 10 times more football my first fantasy season. I have purchased NFL Redzone, which showcases every scoring play on Sundays. I have been interested in going to games and watching EVERY game that is on television. This paragraph contradicts the other paragraph that was added:

Critics charge that because of the varying interests, some fantasy owners may instead support the players on their fantasy rosters in any one game rather than supporting a favorite team. Players are mixed on the impact of the effects of fantasy football on fans' habits and preferences. Retired NFL QB Jake Plummer told ESPN "I think it's ruined the game", and retired New York Giants RB Tiki Barber said about fantasy fans, "there's an incongruity in the wants."^[18] However, former Washington Redskins tight end Chris Cooley plays in four fantasy football leagues himself, ^[17] and former Indianapolis Colts linebacker Cato June benched New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady from his fantasy team to avoid a conflict of interest when the two teams played in November 2006. Fans frequently ask players on their fantasy rosters to score more often; Peyton Manning reported that only autograph requests exceeded fan requests for "more fantasy touchdowns" from him. Fans also often seek inside information on injuries and future stars from coaches.^[18]

I think players who think the game is ruined because of fantasy are wrong. I think it helps the NFL brand for fans and people who would not have been interested if it we were not for fantasy. It changes the reasons why some fans watch the game and especially how but I think fantasy football can only help the brand of the game.

The Running Back Dilemma

This morning, I did something outside of my comfort zone. I drafted Jamaal Charles. It was only a mock draft but it still seemed like I was sky diving without a parachute. I had the fourth pick in the first round. The three obvious running backs were chosen before. These three running backs were Adrian Peterson, Arian Foster and Doug Martin. That left me to pick between Marshawn Lynch, Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy and CJ Spiller.

If the draft was the real deal I probably would have gone with Lynch. He is my guy and I tend to stick with my guys. Jamaal has upside because of the way new Kansas City coach Andy Reid uses his running backs. Jamaal is one of the fastest running backs in the league, that means he could be lethal in the open field. Also, the running game seems to be the go to option for Kansas City so Jamaal will get his touches. One concerning thing about Jamaal is his lack of redzone touches.

CJ Spiller is an enticing pick because of the lack of weapons the Buffalo Bills can throw at an opposing defense. The Bills used CJ in the open field and he was one of the deadliest backs with the ball past the line of scrimmage. Last year, CJ was third in the NFL in yards after contact (YAC). CJ is a sure fire first round pick.

McCoy is a talented running back, there is no denying that. His troubles last year have cast a shadow over his spotlight as the number three running back in ESPN's preseason rankings. New coach Chip Kelly can be creative with how he uses his offense, so the upside is there but Bryce Brown has the potential to take carries away from McCoy.

Marshawn Lynch is heavily used in the Seattle offense. Besides that he is a beast in YAC and can really make any carry in the redzone into a touchdown. His upside is undeniable and his lack of injuries is attractive. Again, I would pick Lynch over any of these guys.

Trent Richardson Is A Draftable Savage

Please watch this video on mute, the music is lame but the video really does show Trent Richardson's potential to be an elite running back in the NFL.

One thing that stood out the first time I watched this highlight video was the sheer power this guy runs with. Watching him break tackles left and right like a young Marshawn Lynch was pretty awesome. I know Marshawn Lynch is not very much older than Trent but years on a running back's football odometer is essential to their production. 

Trent had injury problems last year but the weeks he did play healthy he put up impressive numbers. The other thing that should be noted about Trent is that he plays for the Browns. The Browns are not a good offensive team and that's putting it nicely. Trent will be given a high number of touches, especially at the goal line. Trent is walking the thin line of a 1st round draft pick. He is a great talent in a great system. If I had the last pick in the first round I would go for him and another RB for the pick after that.

Calvin Johnson: A Top Shelf Guy

Calvin Johnson was my first round draft pick in one of my leagues last year. I regretted that pick for the first several weeks of the season because teams were double teaming Calvin, so he did not have any touchdowns until week six. However, in the second half of the season Calvin really turned it up and had a record setting season. Calvin had a great individual year. He had the most receiving yards by more than 400 yards. He was the leader in points for receivers despite having only five touchdowns. To put that into perspective Lance Moore of the Saints had more touchdowns than Calvin. The reason Calvin had 80 more overall points than Moore was because he had 900 more receiving yards. In a points per reception (PPR) league, Calvin would have had a lot more points than Moore.

Although Calvin is the best receiver in the NFL and had the best overall fantasy year for receivers, he is not a first round draft pick in my eyes. The amount of receivers that are draftable has grown more and more since the NFL has made passing a preference for teams with even a decent quarterback. Take the Jaguars for example, they had Chad Henne and Blaine Gabbert at quarter back, yet Cecil Shorts and Justin Blockmon had breakout seasons.

Matthew Berry, the most famous fantasy football analyst and my personal favorite discusses the reasons NOT to draft Calvin in the first round. Berry talks about the importance of running backs and the large market for wide receivers. Its a risk not to draft a receiver as dominate as Calvin but in the long run, it will probably be worth passing on him for a running back and getting a sneaky receiver pick in the later rounds

Strategic Drafting Can Set Up Trades

 Executing a trade that benefits both teams can take a lot of work. The biggest difficulty is finding an owner who needs a type of player that you can afford to trade. One way to do this is to draft running backs the first three rounds and flip those running backs for players that you did not draft. For example, if I pick an elite running back (Adrian Peterson, Arian Foster) in the first round and really good running backs in the next two rounds, then I could try to flip one of the running backs for a really good tight end and a decent running back. This is an obvious risk to take but it can be done.

In a previous blog, Trading Guys: A Mess Or A Thing Of Beauty I discussed what it takes for a trade to be made and what needs to happen for an owner to be interested in your offer.

To follow up on that post, I wanted to discuss what players could be drafted in the first 5 or so rounds that would have owners asking you for a trade. I used running backs as an example because of the importance they have to a fantasy team. Also, the serious demand they have in fantasy football because of the few elite or really good running backs in the NFL. 

So, if I drafted Doug Martin, Marshawn Lynch and CJ Spiller in the first three rounds, I would have a ton of trading leverage. Please note that drafting these guys three rounds in a row would be a serious accomplishment. Really what I am trying to say is draft a top tier running back followed by two very solid running backs. If you can pull this off, there will no doubt be an owner in serious need for a running back. After those three rounds, you should pick wide receivers and a QB, if you can snag a tight end instead of a wide receiver do so. It's important that you leave one position in need.

If I were an owner who had Jason Witten and Randall Cobb I would be very tempted to accept an offer to trade those two for a running back like Lynch and I would be crazy not to trade for Martin.The point I am trying to make is if you get ahold of a surplus of running backs, you could flip one player for two players. This would essentially give you another high draft pick.

Water Cooler Conversations: My First Round Pick

The first pick is a mysterious and profound moment in an owner's life. Who do you pick? What if he bombs, so much weighs on that pick. The guy you pick will pop off the page with a shine that will make you smile like you are staring at a newborn in their mother's arms. OR that guy can hide in the shadows of your roster and make you angry like an old man hates the Communist Party. That is how important the first pick is to your team. My two first picks last year were Tom Brady for my first team and Calvin Johnson for my second team, but they were the 8th and 5th picks respectively.  The one with Tom Brady ended winning the championship because of a deadly Qb/flex combo of Brady and Kaepernick. I think at the 8th pick in the first round, Brady was a smart choice. He was the best Qb on the board and Arian Foster had been picked. I want to share a conversation I had with a fellow owner. It will give an outside perspective, instead of my opinion being repeated over and over.  To respect the owners' anonymity I will call him Owner A.

ME: If you had first pick, who would you go with?

Owner A: Adrian Peterson hands down.

ME: What if it was a PPR league.

Owner A: I would still go with Adrian Peterson. He is too good not to pick. If all the running backs were picked, I would probably pick Calvin Johnson. 

ME: You wouldn't pick Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees? 

Owner A: Nope, quarterbacks are all the same when it comes to points, an elite running back is hard to come by.

Owner A really likes Adrian Peterson. I don't blame him, AP ran for 2097 yards with 12 touchdowns coming off ACL surgery in January. AP is such a good player that the offense mainly runs through him. With the Vikings lacking other threats on offense, AP will be used more and more. 

Any quarterback that starts in the NFL will get you at least 15 points, with the exception of a few. Christian Ponder and Mark Sanchez are two that are undraftable. Decent quarterbacks can get 15 points  on a weekly basis, but even that is not all that great. However, an elite quarterback will get you 20-25 points on average, but can go off for 30 plus points any given week. The difference between an elite running back and a decent running back in terms of points is far greater than the difference between an elite quarterback and decent quarterback. 

Cam Newton vs Robert Griffin

Robert Griffin and Cam Newton have a few things in common when it comes to fantasy. One thing is they do not have stellar receiving cores. Cam Newton has Steve Smith, who is a dynamic receiver but that is really all Cam has to work with. Lets look at Cam's numbers for the 2012 season:

Passing Yards: 3869        

Passing Touchdowns: 19

Passing Interceptions: 12

Rushing Yards: 741

Rushing Touchdowns: 8

Fumbles: 3

The turnovers and lack of wins the Panthers had everyone saying that Cam had an off year. 15 turnovers is a lot, but with a young quarterback there will be mistakes. In terms of passing yards combined with rushing yards, Cam had a great year. He finished fourth overall in total points right behind Tom Brady for all quarterbacks.

Another thing the two quarterbacks have in common is their youth and their ability to rush, which is a huge plus for fantasy. Here is what Robert Griffin III did in 2012:

Passing Yards: 3200

Passing Touchdowns: 20

Passing Interceptions: 5

Rushing Yards: 815

Rushing Touchdowns: 7

Fumbles: 2

For a rookie Robert had an awesome year. The lack of turnovers was impressive and shows how well Robert worked in the Redskins' system. Robert is very injury prone so I might pick Cam over him. One  thing that is impressive about Robert is the rushing yard and touchdowns, his running abilities are unique.

Putting A Face To The Guys

If you are really a superstitious fantasy nut, than look at the head shot of a guy you are thinking of drafting. If the guy is smiling and does not have anything that sticks out, than that's a good sign. But, if the guy has an abundance of tattoos and piercings, he may be over compensating for something. Whether it's low fantasy production or a drug problem, one thing is clear, I won't draft that guy either way. Here are three guys that I like to look at...because of their fantasy potential.

This guy right here? This guy is Jamaal Charles. A slightly injury prone running back, who has a huge opportunity to kill it this season. Andy Reid loves to use his running backs for all they have. He is a slight risk to pick first, but the upside potential makes him one hell of a guy.

This guy is a tease. DO NOT get lured in by the name Vernon Davis. Scott Chandler scored more fantasy points than Vernon last year. The chances of you knowing what team Scott Chandler plays for are like the odds that I am going to draft this guy. If you didn't know by now there is no way I am ever going to draft this guy. Pass on him unless you have a gun to your head and the person demands you draft him, than that is a good reason to draft Vernon. P.S. Notice the weird and potentially corny tattoos  peaking through the jerseys. I am just saying, there are signs.

This guy is Brandon Marshall. A total beast. If you are in a standard league and especially if your are in a points per reception (ppr) league, you should pick Brandon as your first receiver. If you pick him first round after all the elite quarterbacks and running backs are gone that is a risky move. If you watched the Bears last year it was would've been obvious that Brandon was his favorite target. Brandon had over 1500 yards receiving and 11 touchdowns. His numbers will stay solid going into 2013.