First Half MVP's (continued): Wide Receiver

Wide Receiver:

This is Jordy Nelson. He is the best wide receiver on the Packers and that translates to being a top three receiver. The best part of Jordy that makes him different than the consensus top three ( Calvin, Demaryius and Dez) is that he wasnt drafted in the first round. He was my second round pick in everyone of my leagues. If you drafted a wr in the first and a wr in the second you have trade bait or the best wr's in your league. Its all their for Jordy, his size, targets and quarterback make him top 3 the rest of the way.


 Antonio Brown was taken in the third round in my 12 team ppr league. He has been by the far the most valuable pick at wr. The thing about Brown that is sustainable is his superior speed and route running. No corner in the league can shut Brown down for a whole game. Big Ben looks his way among the top in the league with 74 targets. That is actually the third most targets for a wr, D Thomas is number 1 with 76 because of Thursday Night Football. Stick with Antonio hes the guy.

First Half MVP's By Position

I decided it would be easy to look at the highest scoring player in each position and just say that they are the MVP at their position but I decided that it would be easier to see which players are most likely carrying your team because of where they were drafted not in the first round. I play in 12 or 14 team PPR leagues but i will not speak strictly to PPR value.
Quarterback:
Andrew Luck has the most passing yards in the NFL with 2,331 and is tied with Peyton for the most touchdown passes in the league. The extreme value of Luck is that teams did not pick him until the fourth round or later. That means teams picked players at a higher pick with high value. So if team a picked two rbs and two wrs before they picked Luck, they are probably one of the best teams in their league. In every league that I am in, the teams who drafted Luck, are one of the best teams in the league.

Two more quarterbacks that have great value from where they were most likely picked is Phillip Rivers and Joe Flacco. Both most likely went undrafted or in the later rounds when people pickups qbs just to have a backup. Rivers has been a top five scoring qb and is in the running for NFL MVP. Flacco had one great game but outside of that has been consistently pretty good which is solid for some flops at qb this year. 

Running Back

Demarco Murray has been a savage. The only player in history to run 100 yards in a game seven times in a row. The offensive line in Dallas takes alot of credit but anyone watching Demarco knows that once he gets past the big holes created by the lineman he runs hard. He will most likely get injured because of the pace he is currently on but he is worth riding thus far. He was not picked in the first round in the leagues I am in. Even for a second round pick he has been a steal.

Other mentions go to Bradshaw in Indy and Bell in Pittsburgh. Both are PPR studs, Bell especially has been more reliable in both formats. Bradshaw has had 6 receiving tds which is hard to keep up. Both were not picked in the first round and are shelling out great numbers.

TIGHT END AND WIDE RECEIVER will be posted later.

Week 8 and Beyond: Take this with a Grain of Salt.

This is a continuation of the blog from the preseason before the 2013 season. This is a blog that will talk about Week 8 of the 2014 season and beyond. I will briefly talk about what has happened this year up too week 8. I will write brief posts about first half mvps, first half surprise players, first half disappointments, and first half busts. I will also talk about players to sell high and to sell low. I will give advice on who to pick up on the waiver wire. Its the point in the season where you are gearing up for the playoffs, making a run for the playoffs, or trying your best not end up in last like a goddamn lunatic. Read up and take this advice with a grain of salt. Do not believe everything you hear on the internet.

Overrated and Underrated Players

 Each draft pick is about comparing players to each other and knowing who is overrated and underrated. In this post I will talk about a player who is overrated and underrated in each offensive position. It is important to know who has more value at each position. I will not bother talking about things like,who is more valuable Aaron Rodgers or Kevin Kolb. I want to get into players who are not stand-out, elite players but players who are very important to an owners success and might not exactly pop off a roster.

Quarter Back

OVERRATED: Andrew Luck
 The Hype around Andrew Luck last year was well deserved. He was the 8th best quarterback in terms of fantasy scoring. He averaged 22.9 points a game in PPR formatted leagues. He had 28 overall touchdowns and showed impressive pocket passing skills as well as surprising running abilities. However, a coaching change from the pass happy Bruce Arians made Luck have more passing attempts, he totaled 627 last year. The Colts coach Chuck Pagano, who was out most of last year due to illness, is known for a more conservative style of play. With additions to the Colts defense, Luck will not have to pass as much because they will not always be trying to overcome a deficit. Pagano will choose to run the ball more especially with a bolstered offensive line and with the addition of Ahmad Bradshaw, the Colts will run the ball more. Luck is a great talent in the NFL, but in terms of his fantasy value, 2013 will be a down year. 

UNDERRATED: Matthew Stafford
There has been a lot of criticism of Stafford because of his low production last year. Stafford finished the year 10th in scoring and had 17 interceptions with just 20 touchdown passes. While those numbers are disappointing especially after his huge year in 2011, Stafford led the league in passing attempts in the past two seasons. The problem the Lions had last year was their passing game was the only threat to opposing defenses. Especially, since their defense was giving the other team huge leads. With the addition of Reggie Bush and a healthier offensive line, some of the pressure will be taken off Stafford. I think this will give him a better opportunity to score. 

Running Back

OVERRATED:
Arian Foster is one of the best backs in the league. He scores at will when on the goal line and is for sure a top 5 fantasy running back. Most pre-rankings for fantasy football have Foster as the second running back to be chosen. I think that this is too high for Foster and that he could see a down year. Running backs have a short time frame in their careers where they are in their prime. Foster has led the league in carries the past two seasons. Last year he led the league with 351 rushing attempts. Despite that he was the third best running back in terms of overall fantasy points in PPR leagues. He rushed for the 6th most yards and was in the top 15 in receptions. Health is a major concern for Foster going into this season, he is reported to have calf problems already. Another question mark for Foster is whether or not he will have all the goal line opportunities that he has had in past seasons. 

 UNDERRATED:
Trent Richardson will have a great year this year if he can stay healthy. With injuries and a shaky offense last year Trent still managed to get within the top ten in scoring. He averaged 17 points per game and had a suprising 51 catches. The offensive line is the same as last year which is good news because they are young and athletic linesman, especially their left tackle Joe Thomas. Look for Trent to repeat his scoring numbers but improve his rushing yards dramatically. 

Wide Receiver

OVERRATED:
Stevie Johnson is the go too receiver for the Buffalo Bills but will not be of great value to fantasy owners this year. With one of the worst Quarterback situations in the league, the Bills passing game will suffer. Unless EJ Manuel will surprise everyone in the NFL with a great season, Stevie's numbers will decline from his 6 touchdown and 1,000 yards plus last year. Another factor riding against Stevie is the new coach in town that is known for his heavy rushing approach to the game. 

 UNDERRATED:
Reggie Wayne has been an exciting player to watch the past few seasons. After Peyton Manning left the Colts, it was thought that Reggie's fantasy production would go down dramatically. Last year, however, Wayne was targeted 195 times. That was second in the league and was far more than anyone had predicted. He finished with over 1,300 yards receiving and 100 catches. Especially in PPR leagues, Reggie is a steal with the depth of receivers in the league. 

Tight End

OVERRATED:
I can't blog enough about how much I do not like Vernon Davis as a fantasy owner. I have nothing against the guy, I think he is talented and athletic but as a fantasy tight end, he is past his prime. Last year he had multiple games with zero points. Just because he has had hope surround his name this off-season because of injuries, does not have me thinking differently about Vernon. DO NOT DRAFT HIM. 

 UNDERRATED:
Martellus Bennet is a gifted receiver who has shown flashes of being a solid fantasy producer. Although he had only 600 yards receiving and 5 touchdowns, Bennett is a great athletic force in the passing game. The Bears had only one true threat in the passing game and that was Brandon Marshall. With defenses putting more focus on Brandon, I expect Bennett to have more than the 90 targets Eli Manning threw to him last year.

Focus on getting the elite players in the first few rounds. Expect these players with the exception of the running backs to be in the later rounds. It's important to differentiate values between players in fantasy, especially with the clock ticking and it is your turn to pick.

The Importance of Mock Drafts

Mock drafts are a great way to contain your excitement for the real deal drafts coming up. I have a day, hour and minute countdown for both of my drafts this year. Mock drafts also prepare owners more than any other type of research. An owner can have notes and flashcards about players but it doesn't translate to have the sense of mind to pick under distress.

There is a time limit for each draft pick so it is important, for example, in the 3rd round to have an idea of what you need and if one position is more important than another. For example, I had two running backs in Adrian Peterson and Maurice Jones Drew. I could have picked Peyton Manning or Tom Brady in the third round. There was also Julio Jones and Brandon Marshall available.

Since it was a PPR league and receivers are given a huge advantage, I picked Brandon Marshall. Marshall is incredibly gifted and is by far the number one target for Jay Cutler. Julio Jones is one of three very popular targets for the Falcons, so Brandon has a fantasy advantage.

The reason I waited on quarterbacks is because there are many tiers in terms of fantasy production. There is Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees at the top, with at least three other tiers. If you have solid receivers and running backs you do not need a Brees or Rodgers, you can go for a mid-level guy who can give you 17 to 20 points a week.

Its important to mock draft to your league settings. In one league I am in there are two running back slots, two receiver slots, and two flex slots. I have to draft running backs with high value than any other position. Since the leagues, are PPR I can have more faith in receivers. However, running backs remain the most valuable when it comes to fantasy.

Where Are You Drafting?

There are different ways to draft your team. I have done live drafts where everyone is in a room and write their picks on a board. I have done online drafts as well. These are the two most common ways to draft.

Live drafts are cool and give an authentic feeling to the draft for owners in the league. It can be fun and entertaining because everyone is in the same room. It can be difficult for owners to focus and take account for what positions they already have and who they need. It can also be difficult to know what players are still available to draft. Live drafts can also take a long time because it may be hard to give a time limit for owners to make a pick.

Online drafts can be useful because the website solves the problems you can have with a live draft. Online drafts are user friendly because they have the players ranked and can organize everything, making it easier for owners. Online drafts are also more time efficient because of the timer. One big problem with online drafts is people can have trouble connecting with the internet. I have had this problem in the past and my team was autodrafted the first few rounds. It is a horrible feeling to have your first few picks auto drafted.

My friend suggested we draft at a Buffalo Wild Wings. This is a bad idea. I can't trust the internet connection plus I do not want to be distracted by the ten thousand televisions and people rooting for their teams. I prefer to keep it indoors, alone, and in the dark.

A Trade That Paid Off

It was the end of the second week of the regular season in the NFL, RGIII had just gone off against the Saints. He was looking like the stud of the fantasy season. My friend who will go by the name of Gill, had RGIII sitting on the bench because he had Cam Newton starting. I had Big Ben from Pittsburgh at quarterback so I was looking for an upgrade. My other friend who will go by the name of Josh, needed a running back. Gill needed a wide receiver, which I had plenty of.

This was the making of my first and only three way trade. At the time I realized of the potential three way trade it was already midnight. I could not see myself falling asleep with a trade as big as this one hanging in the air. The wide receivers I had last year were stupidly good, I wasn't willing to give any of them up. I had Brandon Marshall, Calvin Johnson and Julio Jones. That meant I had to give up a running back. I had CJ Spiller, Alfred Morris and Frank Gore. I was most willing to trade Gore for RGIII.

Gill was not going for that trade because he was in serious need for a wide receiver. I was not giving Gill any of my receivers so I had to get one of Josh's receivers for a running back. Gill wanted Dez Bryant from Josh and Josh wanted Gore from me.

By two o'clock in the morning all three of us decided to trade Gore, RGIII and Dez Bryant. This is how it went down:
Josh traded me Dez Bryant
I Traded Josh Frank Gore
I flipped Dez Bryant for RGIII.

The offers that were made until all three parties could agree on something were endless. Finding a medium that fit everyone's needs is the trickiest part. After a few weeks of RGIII carrying my team and dominating while Cam Newton carried out a disappointing year, Gill regretted making that trade. Overall, I think I came out on top of that trade even though running back served to be a minor bump in the road for me.